This Programme Package will develop a what-if scenario model for determining the impacts of extreme weather on socio economic factors.
EWESEM, the Extreme Weather Events Socio-Economic Model will be the first attempt to develop a community-level impact model that integrates the health, employment, housing, crime, emergency services sectors with long-term predictions of climate change and extreme weather event scenarios, and will do so in a way that captures both the immediate and lagged effects.
At present, long-term projections of, for example, the housing market and decisions on the optimal location of new housing take no account of climate change and the implications for flood risk.
This work will develop modelling tools and prototype interactive software-based Community Impact Simulators to facilitate decision making and the application of these resources to particular “What if?” scenarios, including a range of assumptions for weather patterns, coping/adaptation strategies and other socio-economic variables.
Maps and other graphical representations of the community impacts of extreme weather scenarios will link with WISP .